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I'd trust more my server stats that anyone else.
I use firefox with noscript extension.
As Google analytics use javascript to register that you've been on a site, with that extension, I'm not recorded (except if I add google-analytics to my whitelist).
Your server stats are based on the server log files, which are an absolute metric.
If someone came to your site, then there's a trace in your log.
Now, filtering new/recurring visits is always tricky, the web being a stateless network.
You can do everything you want, there is no method that allows you to part them 100%. Cookie, IP, digital signature, login, they all have some situations where you won't be able to sort out if the user is coming back or if it's a new visit.
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