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Well it's a little more complicated than that. Although he makes some generalizations, Learning Newbie is basically right here. Text is one thing that could influence a "conversion" ( ie the visitor doing something that profits you ), but only one. How that text is presented, will determine how many people even read it. When you ask for your money back, the writer could say things didn't work because you chose the wrong font/color.
I've read a lot about copywriters on the internet selling the same content to everyone who will buy it. The pay seems too low for original writing. Google doesn't punish duplicate content, but if that content already exists, it won't help either. Now I don't know that all writers do this, and it would be pretty silly to assume they do ... price might be a good indicator.
If you don't want to / can't write the content yourself, then that's a pretty good reason to hire someone to do it for you. Nothing at all wrong with that. But I have to agree with the Newbie here, in that the writer really has no control over whether your visitors decide to buy something or give you their email address. I would personally see a writer promising an X% conversion rate the same way I'd see somebody promising that if I take this job, traffic along I-5 at 9 am will be minimal.
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