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You must remember that Google is almost like a living breathing machine that is constantly changing depending on what it's users are doing. I have also noticed sometimes that certain ads will have an avg. position of 2-6 even though the magnifying lens says that they are not showing on the first page. A reason for this is that during the course of the day, there may be moments in time when your bid is high enough to be worthy of showing. Don't forget that there are many competitors clawing their way to the top of the list and if some of them drop out of the race, then you will move up relative to your bid until someone out-bids you to steal your spot in line. For the most part, if the magnifying lens says it's not showing on the first page, usually that's true.
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